財金系擬於 3/14(五) 邀請 Prof. 黃美綺，至本所進行專題演講，相關訊息如下：

時間: 3/14(五) 10:30-12:00

地點: 管理學院一號館4F 405室

演講人: Prof. 黃美綺

講題: Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations

Abstract:

This study examines the role of households’ expectations in predicting the housing boom–bust cycles in the United States. 

It incorporates two nonlinear features of housing price dynamics: a threshold co-movement between households’ expectations 

and housing price growth and a structural break in their interrelation. It uses the monthly good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index as 

a proxy for households’ expectations about the U.S. housing market, and employs the structural break threshold vector 

autoregression (SBTVAR) to specify breakpoints in housing market dynamics during the recent decades. The findings indicate 

that shifts in interactions between households’ expectations and housing price growth are synchronous with the recent 

housing boom–bust cycles. The SBTVAR framework outperforms other models as it captures more of the housing market’s 

unique dynamic characteristics. The GTTB index, which governs expectation regime-switching patterns, is able to signal 

the recent housing bust three periods in advance.

這周五下午的Office Hour：

Office Hour：1:30-1:50、1:50-2:10、2:10-2:30  

Office Hour地點：管理學院二號館9F 研討室