財金系邀請洪啟修教授至本所進行演講，相關訊息如下：

 <<Seminar>>

時間: 03/04(五) 上午10:30-12:00

地點: 臺大管理學院一號館 405教室

講題：Dividend Policy and Managerial Overreaction to

Trends in Profitability Growth and Decline

Abstract:

We argue that the decision to pay (or not to pay) dividends stems from managers'

overreaction arising from overextrapolation in patterns of increasing (decreasing) firm earnings.

We show that, in aggregate, dividend decisions strongly depend on aggregate rate of firms experiencing

past earnings growth (declines), which reflects the time-varying market-wide managerial optimism (pessimism).

At firm-level managerial overreaction has strong effects on dividend policy: firms tend to initiate or

increase (omit or decrease) dividends having experienced earnings growth (declines) over years,

while their future earnings decline (grow). We also investigate relative managerial overreaction that adds

to the overall market-wide tendency. Firms with past earnings growth (declines) above (below) average are

more likely to initiate or to increase (to omit or to decrease) dividends. Moreover, managers not only overreact

to trends in profitability but also to similar trends in sales and free cash flows. Further, the effect of managerial

overreaction on dividends is distinct from and stronger than the effect of CEO overconfidence.